According to Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service on Tuesday, Russia is gearing up for a military conflict with the West within the next ten years and could be discouraged by a counteroffensive involving a build-up of armed forces.
More and more Western officials are alerting Europe to the military threat that Russia poses to NATO member states on its eastern flank and urging it to rearmament.
The assessment, according to the head of the intelligence service, was predicated on Russian intentions to double the number of troops positioned along its borders with Finland, a NATO member, and the Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.
“Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation … and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so,” Kaupo Rosin remarked to reporters upon the publication of Estonia’s report on national security threats.
In the short term, a Russian military attack is “highly unlikely,” he stated, due in part to Russia’s need to maintain troops in Ukraine, it is unlikely that Russia would do the same in Europe. “If we are not prepared, the likelihood (of a military Russian attack) would be much higher than without any preparation,” Rosin added.
Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO allies increased their presence in Estonia and the other Baltic States, and these nations increased their military spending to over 2% of their GDP.
By 2027, Germany intends to station 4,800 combat-ready soldiers in the area, marking its first long-term overseas deployment since World War II. NATO and its allies, according to Rosin, are responding appropriately to the Russian threat.
