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Tuesday, October 3, 2023

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UN: India’s Population To Surpass China By Mid-2023

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India will become the most populous country in the world by surpassing China by mid-2023, revealed a data by the United Nations

The South Asian country’s population is anticipated to touch 1.4286 billion, 2.9 million more than the East Asian country, which has a population of 1.4257 billion.

From the last 70 years, Asian countries have collectively contributed over a third of the world population. Birth rate in China has gone down which has effected its population that saw a decline in 2022 for the first time since 1961.

Since there hasn’t been a census in India since 2011, the population forecast in the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) State of the World Population report is an estimate.

Census in India had been conducted every 10 years till 2011, making it a continues trend for 140 years, however,  the next census which was to be conducted in 2021 was called off due to COVID-19 and was scheduled for the next year. But now it has been further postponed to 2024.

Patrick Gerland, UN’s Chief of Population Estimates and Projection, said in an interview with the BBC that any statistics regarding India’s actual population size are “naïve assumptions based on fragmental information”. “We don’t have real official data coming out from India,” he added.

The UN data does not include China’s two Special Administrative Regions, Hong Kong and Macau, which accounts for over 8 million people or equal to Taiwan

Also, the UN says their estimate does not include the population of China’s two Special Administrative Regions – Hong Kong and Macau, which together have more than 8 million people – or the island of Taiwan, which China views as a secessionist province that China will eventually reunite with it. Taiwan considers itself different from the Chinese mainland, and governs itself independently with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders.

In November, the global population crossed 8 billion. But experts say growth is not as rapid as it used to be and is now at its slowest rate since 1950.

Fertility in both the countries has come down. This will result in decrease in Chinese population from 2024, even after it shunned its one-child policy in 2016 and even given impetus to giving birth to two or more children. Rising living costs and the ever-increasing number of women being employed are other reasons behind the slowdown in China.

India has also witnessed declining fertility in the recent years from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to 2.2 births per woman in present day.

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