DJOUNGOU continues to move south-eastwards, away from any inhabited land in the south-east of the basin. It lost its tropical characteristics at the end of the day. It has therefore been downgraded to a post-tropical depression (although strong winds are still associated with it, but no inhabited land is affected). It will be moving away from Mauritius
However, tropical depression n°07-20232024 continues to move eastwards and is struggling to intensify. However, with its overnight evolution, it has a good chance of becoming a moderate tropical storm during the night, and thus of being named ELEANOR.
According to the current CMRS forecast, the meteor will then pass close to Saint-Brandon on Wednesday and Mauritius at the end of the week, at a mature stage. Meteo France urges residents of the Mascarene Islands to keep a close eye on the forecast.
Here’s what Météo Maurice has to say
- The latest satellite images indicate that the tropical depression off the northeast coast of Madagascar was located at 10:00 am around 14.7 degrees south and 55.0 degrees east. It is moving east-northeast at 15 km/h and should intensify into a moderate tropical storm by this afternoon. It will be named ELEANOR. However, there are still uncertainties in the intensity and movement of the system.
- System evolution:
Numerical models expect the system to intensify further and move eastward until Tuesday 20, after which the track will turn southward, then south-southwestward. On this trajectory, it will come dangerously close to St Brandon, and is likely to cause cyclonic conditions from Tuesday evening. If it maintains this course, the system could pose a direct threat to Mauritius from Thursday 22nd. There is a high probability of cyclonic conditions over Mauritius on Thursday 22nd and Friday 23rd.
- Forecast for Tuesday February 20 to Friday February 23, 2024
Saint-Brandon: Light showers at times, becoming heavy and stormy from Tuesday 20.
Gusts of 150km/h to 180 km/h are expected from Tuesday evening. Seas will be very rough to phenomenal, with wave heights of 8 to 10 metres. Storm tides may affect islets.
Mauritius: Light showers, likely to become more frequent on Wednesday night (21). Showers are likely to become heavy and stormy from Thursday 22. Expected gusts could exceed 120 km/h. High seas will also be very strong to phenomenal, with wave heights of 8 to 10 metres. Storm tides are likely to submerge low-lying coastal areas.
