FREDDY intensified to a Very Intense Tropical Cyclone late Saturday night. It is now a category 4, Freddy is heading towards the west of the Indian Ocean basin at a speed of 22 km/h. It should reach Mauritius, Reunion Island and Madagascar between Monday and Tuesday, leading to fears of significant damage, even if there are still uncertainties about its trajectory.
This particularly powerful and compact cyclone generates extreme winds near its center, but the area of influence of the cyclone is reduced: few effects felt beyond 200 km from the center.
On a trajectory oriented towards the west-southwest, FREDDY will approach the Mascarenes by the northeast with a passage off the north of Rodrigues this Sunday evening, Mauritius on Monday afternoon and Reunion between Monday evening and Tuesday morning.
According to the preferred scenario, the distance of passage to the sister islands should be between 100 and 300 km, causing a significant deterioration of weather conditions but not exposing the land to the most dangerous area located in the heart of the cyclone. Nevertheless, given the uncertainties at these times, a more pessimistic scenario with a passage very close to the islands can not yet be completely ruled out.
A landing on the eastern coast of Madagascar is expected on Tuesday evening at a stage that is still probably intense and with a significant probability of locally destructive winds and very dangerous sea state near the impact area. The location of the landfall area has yet to be specified, but is expected to be between the southern part of Tamatave province and Fianarantsoa province.
A class I cyclone warning is in effect in Mauritius
The weather will be cloudy at times with showers mainly over the central plateau.
The wind will blow from the southeast at a speed of about 20 km/h.
The sea will be rough beyond the reefs.
A deterioration of the weather is expected in the afternoon of Monday February 20 with intermittent rain and strong winds. The sea will gradually become very rough with large swells from Monday morning.
A Class II cyclone warning is in effect for Rodrigues.
Seventh cyclone bulletin for Rodrigues issued at 04h10 hours this Sunday 19 February 2023.
During the last hours, the intense tropical cyclone Freddy has intensified into a very intense tropical cyclone and maintains its trajectory towards the west-southwest. The atmospheric pressure at the center of Freddy has deepened further to about 900 hPa and gusts near the center have increased to 320 km/h.
At 04:00 hours, the very intense tropical cyclone Freddy was centered about 500 km east-northeast of Rodrigues, at latitude 16.7 degrees south and longitude 67.0 degrees east. It is moving towards west-southwest at about 20 km/h.
On this trajectory, Freddy continues to approach Rodrigues and thus represents a potential threat to the island.