Mauritius is confident that it should be able to meet its new target of 325,000 arrivals in the last quarter of 2021. Do we have the muscles to do so?
The Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa Report of the IMF published in October 2020 already identified Mauritius and Seychelles as the two most vulnerable countries to the ongoing crisis. According to this Report, no countries in the Sub-Saharan region were sparred from a decline in economic activity. However, “the largest impact on growth has been on tourism dependent countries such as Mauritius and Seychelles both down by about 17% compared with our October 2019 forecast”.
This year, in its Article IV Consultation Staff Report, although the IMF states that “with tourism halted, real GDP contracted by 15% in 2020 and the current account deficit widened substantially”. Nonetheless, although it expects tourism flows to resume in the second half of the year, the Fund also warns that “tourism flows remain uncertain and a prolonged pandemic could require costly containment efforts and prompt behavioural changes hurting tourism”.
The Executive Board of the IMF cautioned that challenges and risk remain given the unclear pace of recovery in tourism.
Between January and May 2021, Mauritius has welcomed only 2945 tourists as compared to 304,872 in the same period in 2020. While tourism earnings amounted to a total of Rs. 15.7 billion between January and May in 2020, tourism earnings fell to Rs. 522 million between January and March while figures for April and May 2021 were not available.
The 325,000-target set by the authorities for the last quarter of 2021 remain feasible though. In 2019, tourist arrivals between October and December amounted to 543,300. However, in 2019, the country could count on its national carrier which had a fleet size of 13 air planes flying to 22 destinations at its disposal and on 22 other international airlines to bring tourists to its shores.
Air Mauritius now has a depleted fleet size of four operational air planes and therefore may not play the critical role expected of it to meet national growth objectives of 325,000 tourist arrivals between October and December 2021. Emirates daily Dubai-Mauritius flights may compensate.
Also, authorities’ decision to maintain 14 days long quarantine may be a deterrent. As pre-pandemic official statistics show; in January and February 2020 the average length of stay per tourist were 10 nights.
