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Macro Week Ahead: Morocco Welcomes IMF-World Bank Annual Meeting

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The World Bank Group-International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings are back this year from October 9-15 and is taking place in Marrakech from October 9th to October 15th.

Some of the other highlights this week are the US FOMC minutes and inflation data and UK GDP.  What solutions have worked on the ground in developing countries? How do we boost jobs, digital infrastructure, and climate action?

Indrabati Lahiri outlines the key economic data releases and events not to miss this week:

IMF and World Bank meetings: Climate change and a digital future in focus

Happening from Monday 9th October to Sunday 15th October, this year’s key meeting themes are building economic resilience, securing transformational reforms and reinvigorating global cooperation. This includes tightening policy frameworks to address climate change, food insecurity and governance.

The October 2023 World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability report will also be released on Tuesday, providing some much-needed insight into how the global economy is expected to evolve and cope in the near future, following ongoing inflation and slower growth.

US inflation likely to inch lower

US year-on-year inflation for September, due on Thursday, is likely to clock in at 3.6%*, a marginal fall from July’s 3.7%. Lower energy prices and the Fed’s continued aggressive monetary policy approach are likely to be behind this figure. If September inflation does fall, the Fed may also see it as a green flag to hold rates steady for a while longer.

FOMC minutes: Fed holds interest rate at 22-year high in September

The FOMC minutes for the US Federal Reserve’s September 2023 meeting are due to be out on Wednesday, shedding more light on the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50% in September. This marks a break since its last 0.25% hike in July, but not enough to rest easy yet- indications of at least one more hike before the end of the year prevail. However, domestic economic growth projections were also revised higher, with US GDP now expected to grow 2.1% this year.

UK month-on-month GDP could stabilise slightly in August

UK’s August GDP, due on Thursday, may come in at 0.2%*, which would mark an upswing from July’s -0.5%. With US GDP expectations also rising, this could hopefully mean that the UK economy is looking up again, following economic activity taking a hit due to strikes and wet weather in July. However, we’re not out of the woods yet- the UK economy has still not returned to pre-pandemic levels and is regularly one of the slowest-growing ones in the G7.

China inflation expected to stay mostly flat

China’s inflation data for September, coming in on Friday, is due to clock in at 0.2%*, a slight increase from August’s 0.1%. This could be due to core consumer prices, as well as non-food prices growing. The country is also still struggling with higher energy prices with inflation expected to keep growing slowly in the next few months. However, right now, it’s still a long way off the target rate of 3% set by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC).

Michigan Consumer Sentiment could point a light towards growing economic anxiety

The preliminary estimate for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October is due on Friday and is expected to drop to 67.4* this month, down from 68.1 in September. This is likely to be largely due to growing economic anxiety in the US over the potential shut down of the US federal government in case an appropriate budget plan is not passed. Other ongoing issues such as labour disputes in the auto industry are also likely to contribute to the current dampened sentiment.

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