The meteo office has issued a fourth cyclone bulletin for Mauritius at 04h10 on Sunday 14 January 2024.
At 04h00, severe tropical storm Belal was centred at about 460 km to the north-west of Mauritius near latitude 18.3 degrees south and longitude 53.7 degrees east. It is now moving towards the south-south-west at a speed of about 20 km/h.
Belal is located slightly further west than expected but continues to approach our region and as such still represents a potential threat for Mauritius.
System information :
– BELAL continues its phase of sustained to rapid intensification. The system reached Tropical Cyclone status this morning at 04:00 local time.
– Intensification to the intense tropical cyclone stage is forecast over the next 24 hours, with the system gradually approaching the Greater Mascarenes from the west-northwest.
– BELAL is therefore expected to be a very dangerous cyclone, with extreme winds close to the heart of the phenomenon when it approaches the sister islands, and Réunion in particular, from Sunday night to Monday and during the day on Monday.
– Uncertainty over the exact trajectory is still on the order of 100 to 120 km, but the probability of a passage in the immediate vicinity of La Réunion is significant.
– For La Réunion, the meteor’s intense core is likely to pass within 100 km of the island on Monday. According to the current preferred scenario, the island is potentially exposed to a major cyclonic impact, with the possibility of devastating winds. Whatever happens, even with a passage of 50-100 km from the island, significant impacts linked to strong winds, heavy rain and cyclonic swell are expected.
