The November 2021 MCB Focus edition predicts a 4.4% Gross Domestic Product’s (GDP) growth for 2021. The MCB stated that it has slightly upgraded its forecast due consideration given to the potential impact of current marketing efforts in Europe, particularly in France, to boost tourist arrivals.
Various factors explain why the Mauritian economy may not meet the expectations of policy-makers this year, according to the MCB. The impact of the pandemic continues to be felt across the whole of the economy, mainly service-oriented sectors such as the ‘arts’, entertainment, and recreation, and the ongoing shortage of container ships on overall costs of doing business in Mauritius.
MCB Focus’ real GDP growth forecasts total wealth generated in the country – measured by GDP at market prices – will stand at around Rs 463 billion in 2021. When measured in US dollars, GDP is projected to stand at USD 11 billion for this year. Subsequently, per capita GDP should improve marginally to attain USD 8,838 in 2021, albeit remaining well below its pre-pandemic level.
The MCB Focus expects a relatively high occupation rate in 5-star hotels in line with trends witnessed in Maldives and Seychelles. The occupation rate in lower-rated hotels is set to remain more subdued. The Report anticipates tourist arrivals amounting to 325,000 by a non-negligible margin after factoring in seat capacity constraints and uncertainties on the take-up in long-haul travel.
