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Scientists Predict Global Warming To Cross 1.5°C Threshold By 2027

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Within the next five years, there is a high chance that global temperatures will cross 1.5°C (2.7°F) of climate threshold, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on May 17.

However, this does not imply that global warming would surpass the 1.5°C threshold exceeding pre industrial levels laid by the 2015 Paris Agreement. 

Adam Scaife, head of the long-range prediction at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Britain who worked on the WMO’s latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, said “It’s the first time in history that it’s more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5°C”, as there is a 66% chance that the world would temporarily reach 1.5°C by 2027. 

The report released in 2022 has already pointed the odds to about 50-50.

El Nino, a weather pattern predicted to form in the coming months is said to be partially responsible for pushing the climate to the 1.5°C threshold. During this phenomenon, the Pacific ocean becomes warmer which heats the atmosphere resulting in rising temperatures.   

In a statement to the press, Petteri Taala, Secretary-General of WMO, said, “El Nino will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.”

With time, the possibility of the temperatures temporarily crossing 1.5°C has increased. For instance, scientists predicted a 10% possibility of reaching 1.5°C, from 2017 to 2021.

The WMO updates give its predictions based on long-range weather forecasts rather than projections regarding future greenhouse gas emissions which the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change make.

Temperatures to be hottest in next five years

There is a 98% chance that any year within the next five years will be the highest in global temperatures exceeding the impact of high temperatures in 2016 estimated to be about 1.3°C (2.3°F). The United Nations said on Wednesday that 2023 to 2027 will be the warmest five years after global temperatures will spike as greenhouse gasses and El Nino combine.

The World Meteorological Organization stated that there is a two-thirds possibility that one of the next five years the global temperatures would rise after crossing its threshold as laid out for reducing climate change as per the Paris accords.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries decided to collaborate to keep the global temperature “well below” two degrees Celsius above average levels measured between 1850 and 1900 and 1.5°C if possible. 

The years between 2015 and 2022 were the warmest eight years on record, with 2016 being the warmest by far, however, global temperatures are said to rise further as climate change hastens. The WMO said, “There is a 98-percent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.”

 In 2022, the global mean temperature scaled 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average.

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