Fourth cyclone bulletin for Mauritius issued at 0410 hours this Saturday 19 February 2022.
Tropical cyclone Emnati continues to evolve in a favorable environment that will maintain its intensity. During the night there was an acceleration in its speed of movement. The pressure at the center of the system is estimated at about 962 hPa and the gusts near the center are 190 km/h.
At 0400 hours, Tropical Cyclone Emnati was centered about 485 km north-northeast of Mauritius at latitude 16.0 degrees south and longitude 59.5 degrees east. Tropical Cyclone Emnati is moving southwest at an accelerated speed of about 20 km/h.
On this trajectory, tropical cyclone Emnati is approaching our region and represents a potential threat to Mauritius. Active clouds will continue to move across the island and wind gusts will strengthen further and could reach 100 km/h in the afternoon.
The public in Mauritius is advised to complete all preliminary precautions.
Clouds associated with the outer bands of Emnati are influencing the weather in Mauritius with intermittent rainfall. These rains will become more frequent in the afternoon and will be moderate to heavy at times accompanied by thunderstorms.
The wind will blow from the southeast at a speed of about 45 km/h with gusts of 80 km/h gradually increasing during the day.
The sea will be very rough with swells of about 5 meters becoming gradually big during the day. We advise against going out to sea.
The next bulletin will be issued around 10:10 am.
According to Meteo France
– EMNATI is a tropical cyclone whose intensity has stabilized during the night. A resumption of the intensification remains envisaged for today. EMNATI should become an intense tropical cyclone during the weekend. Fluctuations in intensity are however possible. – The system continues its south-western trajectory before straightening out towards the west-southwest more clearly from Sunday. On this trajectory, EMNATI is approaching the Mascarenes this weekend and then the east coast of Madagascar early next week. – The preferred scenario makes the system pass about 300 km in the northern sector of Mauritius on Saturday night and then about 300 km north of Reunion Island on Sunday evening. It is recalled that the average error of position of the center is 90 km for a forecast at 24 hours and 140 km for a forecast at 48 hours. – A deterioration of the weather and sea conditions is expected from Saturday for Mauritius and Reunion. In this scenario, the conditions should be one notch below the conditions known for BATSIRAI. Beware, a more pessimistic evolution cannot be excluded at the moment. The inhabitants of the area are invited to follow the situation.